What is going on with the Philadelphia Phillies? Don’t they know that they are the only gig in town right now, so they have to entertain us with wins? Apparently, they didn’t get the message.
The Phillies have lost 6 games in a row, dating back to last Friday. Of course, their win against the Miami Marlins on that day happened when I told you all to bet against them. That’s typical me.
With last week’s loss, my MLB betting record drops to 3-3 on the season. Let’s see if I can get back above .500 with a win tonight.
The Background: Not much has gone right for the Phillies over their last six games, which included two losses to the Marlins and four to the Los Angeles Dodgers – all at home. The total combined score of those games was 30-17. The losing streak has dropped their season record to 28-31, 6 games out of first place in the National League East.
The Phillies now head to the road for 9 straight away games in American League ballparks as part of Interleague Play. That means they’ll have to employ a DH, which, for many of the games, should be a fresh-off-the-DL Jim Thome. Maybe that will provide a spark for the offense. Philly starts a three-game series against the Baltimore Orioles (32-25) tonight. The projected pitching matchups are Joe Blanton vs. Jake Arrieta, Vance Worley vs. Tommy Hunter, and Cliff Lee vs. Jason Hammel.
The Line: Phillies +105; Orioles -125; O/U 9
My Take: At this point last year, would you think that the Phillies had any shot, any time in the near future, to be an underdog to the Baltimore Orioles? My how times have changed. After starting off the year red hot, the Orioles have cooled off lately – as many have expected. They are just 3-7 in their last 10 games, the same as the Phillies.
I’m tempted to take the Phillies at +105, but I’m just not sure I’m confident in their ability to win games right now. That being said, there’s no way I’d lay -125 with the Orioles. So I’m left with just the run total line to assess. There have been 7.33 runs per game scored in the Orioles’ 6 games in June, and 8.14 in the Phillies’ 7 June games. Over his last four starts, Blanton has allowed 24 runs in only 19.1 innings, while Arrieta has allowed 15 runs in 21.2 innings.
Those stats lead me to believe that, no matter who comes out of this game with a victory, there will be a bunch of runs put up on the board. That’s why I’m betting Over 9 runs.